Classical theory that guides the design of nonparametric prediction methods like deep neural networks involves a tradeoff between the fit to the training data and the complexity of the prediction rule. Deep learning seems to operate outside the regime where these results are informative, since deep networks can perform well even with a perfect fit to noisytraining data. We investigate this phenomenon of 'benign overfitting' in the simplest setting, that of linear prediction. We give a characterization of linear regression problems for which the minimum norm interpolating prediction rule has near-optimal prediction accuracy. The characterization is in terms of two notions of effective rank of the data covariance. It shows that overparameterization is essential: the number of directions in parameter space that are unimportant for prediction must significantly exceed the sample size. We discuss implications for deep networks and for robustness to adversarial examples.

Joint work with Phil Long, Gábor Lugosi, and Alex Tsigler.