Abstract
The challenges of the real-time tsunami forecasting are multiple and formidable. The main problem stem from the requirement to produce accurate forecast during very short time and based on very limited available data. The problem demands innovative mathematical and computational solutions to be implemented into real-time operational environment.
The 2004 Sumatra tsunami has triggered the efforts of intensive implementation of tsunami science results into operational tsunami warning capabilities. At present several tsunami forecast systems based on various modeling and detection capabilities are operational. Over 40 tsunamis since 2004, including the Great East Coast Japan Tsunami of 2011, initial tests for the tsunami forecast system performances. Preliminary assessment of forecast performance is now available based on the analysis of the U.S. operational tsunami inundation forecast capability. Assessing forecast performance is important to evaluate the needs for improvement and further research. Baseline of the tsunami forecast skills has now been established and will be presented based on the data from the tsunami during the decade. The goals for future improvements and future challenges are going to also be discussed.