The Role of Standardized Tests in Admissions: Predictions vs. Decisions

There is a long-running debate over using standardized test scores in college and graduate admissions, with some arguing that test scores are an important signal of academic qualification and others arguing that they they are a biased measure of ability. Here we revisit this issue by analyzing a novel dataset of more than 16,000 applications over roughly a decade to a large public policy master’s program in the United States. Consistent with past work, we find that GRE scores substantially improve predictions of first-year grades, relative to predictions based on GPA alone. However, when these predictions are used to inform admissions decisions, we find that test scores only modestly improve the expected academic quality of admitted students. The gap between using and not using test scores is further reduced when we augment the baseline GPA-based predictions with more fine-grained information available in student transcripts and other application materials. To explain these results, we observe that even with improved predictions, the downstream admissions decisions are often the same; and where there are differences, it is often from selecting between similarly qualified applicants. Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing between predictions and decisions when assessing the marginal value of test scores in admissions.